A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
